Chestnut vs Kobayashi Overview

• Overview: Joey Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi, two legendary competitive eaters, are set to face off in a hot dog-eating contest titled “Chestnut vs. Kobayashi: Unfinished Beef,” streaming live on Netflix on September 2, 2024.
• Rules: The contest will last 10 minutes with specific rules: no dunking hot dogs or buns in water, no separating hot dogs from buns, and penalties for breaking rules or regurgitation.
• Background: This event marks the first time Chestnut and Kobayashi have competed against each other since 2009. Their rivalry started in the early 2000s, with Chestnut dethroning Kobayashi at Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in 2007.
• Betting and Odds: Joey Chestnut is the heavy favorite with odds ranging from -700 to -1000, while Takeru Kobayashi is the underdog with odds from +400 to +550. Various sportsbooks and betting platforms are offering different lines and prop bets for the contest.
• Motivation and Rivalry: Chestnut is motivated to maintain his dominance after being banned from Nathan’s contest due to a deal with Impossible Foods. Kobayashi aims to avenge his past losses and has come out of retirement specifically for this event.

Chestnut vs Kobayashi Odds

FanDuel Sportsbook has Chestnut as a -700 favorite with Kobayashi currently listed at +400. This bet is only available at select FanDuel Sportsbook locations like New Jersey. Over/Under lines are not currently available. For futher breakdown, scroll below the table. Furthermore, Fantasy sites like Underdog and PrizePicks offer odds on this event.

Effect of Rule Changes

One of the most significant factors influencing the betting odds for “Unfinished Beef” is the set of new rules introduced specifically for this contest. Unlike traditional hot dog-eating competitions, this event prohibits dunking hot dogs and buns in water and does not allow the separation of hot dogs from buns. These seemingly minor rule adjustments have had a substantial impact on how bettors are approaching this event.

Dunking is a standard technique used by competitive eaters to soften the buns and make them easier to consume quickly. By removing this option, Netflix has introduced a variable that could level the playing field between the seasoned Chestnut and the returning Kobayashi. Chestnut is known for his incredible speed and efficiency with the dunking technique, so the absence of this option might slow him down more than his rival. This change has caused some sportsbooks to adjust their odds, narrowing the gap between the favorite, Chestnut, and the underdog, Kobayashi.

Furthermore, prohibiting the separation of hot dogs from buns forces eaters to consume both components together, which could impact their speed and technique. Kobayashi, who has been vocal about his disapproval of dunking and the separation of hot dogs, may have a slight edge under these rules since he’s advocated for a more traditional eating style in the past. This adjustment makes the contest less about pure speed and more about endurance and technique.

Historical Data vs. New Conditions

When assessing the odds for this event, it’s essential to consider how both eaters have performed under different conditions in the past. Joey Chestnut, a 16-time champion of Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, holds the record for most hot dogs eaten in 10 minutes with an astonishing 76. His dominance in the sport is well-documented, especially under the rules that allowed dunking and separation. Historically, Chestnut has used these techniques to maximize his intake and maintain a steady pace, which has been critical to his long-standing success.

However, with the new rules in place, the historical data might not be as predictive of future performance as it usually would be. Kobayashi, who last competed against Chestnut in 2009, is also a multiple-time champion and once held the world record himself. His peak performance in 2009 saw him eating 64 hot dogs in 10 minutes under similar conditions to the Nathan’s event. But since he has not competed in a major contest for years and has voiced health concerns related to his eating career, his current form is largely unknown. However, he beat Chestnut in a hamburger eating contest without dunking back in 2009, which could give him a slight edge.

The betting odds reflect this uncertainty. Initially, Chestnut was a heavy favorite, but as the details of the rule changes became clear, the odds have shifted. Sportsbooks now see the contest as more balanced than before, with bettors considering whether Kobayashi’s traditional eating style might give him an advantage.

Chestnut vs Kobayashi Unfinished Beef Predictions

The rule changes make this contest fundamentally different from past competitions. As a result, betting purely based on historical performance could be misleading. Instead, we focus on the specific advantages or disadvantages that these rule changes present to each competitor.

Chestnut is obviously a huge favorite, but at -700 there’s not much value in him. According to BonusFinder Odds Calculator a $100 bet on Chestnut would only net you $14.19. On the other hand, Kobayashi at +400 is not an attractive choice either. In our opinion he should be much higher for the bet to have any value. Our honest opinion for this event is to not bet and just enjoy the show. However, if you really need to bet, Chestnut should be miles ahead in current form.

• Official Prediction: Chestnut to Win
• Betting Sugestion: Skip